Copper and aluminum fluctuate upward, facing expansion of positions in the long term [Institution's comment]

Published: Jun 17, 2025 20:45

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[Futures Market] During the night session, SHFE copper opened higher and continued to rise. It pulled back in the morning session but rebounded in the afternoon. The most-traded July contract closed at 78,570, up 0.34%. Total trading volume decreased, and total open interest fell by over 10,000 lots. SHFE aluminum fluctuated during the night session to the morning session and strengthened in the afternoon. The most-traded July contract closed at 20,460, up 0.34%. Total trading volume significantly decreased, and total open interest slightly declined. Alumina rebounded slightly, with the most-traded September contract closing at 2,860, up 0.46%.

[Analysis] Yesterday was the last trading day for the June contract. Currently, the most-traded July contract will accelerate its position transfer to the forward months. Today's futures market shows that the forward contracts performed stronger than the nearby months, indicating the advantage of transferring long positions in the forward months under a backwardation structure. For copper and aluminum, which are experiencing continuous inventory drawdowns, if the open interest continues to expand in the later period, there is still room for futures prices to rise.

[Valuation] Copper is moderately overvalued, while aluminum is fairly valued.

[Risks] External risks

(Source: China Fortune Futures)

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